“Kotek” is a naughty word in Oregon Democrats’ campaigns heading into the November 5 election that will determine three important statewide positions and control of the legislature.
An Oregon Roundup analysis of the three statewide races and eight key legislative contests determined that none of the Democrats in those races listed Governor Tina Kotek as an endorser, despite listing many other elected Democrats, including in some cases former Governor Kate Brown, who concluded her final term as the least popular governor in the country.
Democrat Dan Rayfield, the personal injury attorney whom Kotek picked as her successor as Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives in a contested leadership fight in late 2021 and early 2022, is in a closely watched Attorney General race against Republican Will Lathrop. Rayfield lists Brown and Ted Kolongoski, also a former governor, as endorsers, but does not mention Kotek.
Secretary of State candidate Tobias Read (D) lists Brown, Kulongoski as well as former governors Barbara Roberts (1991-1995) and John Kitzhaber, who left office in 2015 under criminal investigation (since dropped) into whether his fiancee Cylvia Hayes influenced state government on behalf of her consulting clients. Read does not mention Kotek.
Elizabeth Steiner, the Democratic candidate for State Treasurer, produces a lengthy list of legislative and statewide elected official endorsers, but omits Kotek.
In all eight of the legislative races designated as considered competitive by The Oregonian in August, the democrats avoid mention of the incumbent governor in the endorsement sections of their campaign websites.
Why? A veteran Democratic aide said this to Oregon Roundup about why Democrats are avoiding Kotek in 2024:
What’s there to embrace? Among the lowest gubernatorial approval ratings in the country? Low academic performance and significantly high chronic absenteeism? An unsustainable budget? Squabbling between her staff and the First Spouse? Portland’s economy marked by high commercial vacancy rates and a declining population? If Harris wins this year, Kotek’s record will be put into searing focus come 2026.
Kotek’s 2022 Republican opponent and current State Representative Christine Drazan added,
It doesn’t surprise me that legislative candidates are running away from Tina Kotek. When it comes to the major problems facing Oregon, things continue to get worse. Homelessness is still rampant, addiction an epidemic, education ranks at the bottom and cost of living is too high. There is a reason she has consistently ranked as the least popular Governor in America.
The implications for 2024 and 2026, when Kotek will presumably run for re-election, are significant. Typically, campaigns poll the favorability of major elected officials in their districts to determine whether to associate publicly with those officials. The blanket avoidance of Kotek suggests wide swaths of Oregonians view her, the most recognizable and powerful standard-bearer for Oregon Democrats’ policies, negatively.
The Morning Consult poll last year found Kotek had the lowest favorability rating of any governor in the country, with only 45% of Oregonians viewing her favorably. Her favorability appears not to have improved since then, with DHM Research in April of this year finding Kotek’s approval in the Democrat-laden Portland metro area at only 45%, with an equal number disapproving.
Jeff Eager writes the Oregon Roundup about things that going on in Oregon from a conservative or classical liberal perspective while avoiding partisanship. oregonroundup.substack.com